Technology-Related Delisted Firms: From Value Illusion to System Collapse: A Cross-Disciplinary Analysis of a Wirecard Case with Dynamic Capability Nested in a Value Evaluation Model

Technology firms with “light-asset + high-growth” attributes attract capital market attention, but delisting events such as Wirecard expose defects in traditional value evaluation-ROE is manipulable, EVA lacks nonfinancial drivers, and BSC lacks a dynamic perspective. Taking the Wirecard as a case, this study embeds dynamic capability theory into the ROE-EVA-BSC framework, integrates multisource data, and uses the synthetic control method (SCM), system dynamics (SD), and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to reveal the “value collapse” mechanism. The findings show that 45.2% of Wirecard’s high ROE stemmed from accounting fraud, with a real EVA of -1.056 billion euros; organizational capability degradation follows three stages (germination-acceleration-collapse), and the collapse threshold is when false transactions exceed 30%. A general path of “light asset → off-balance-sheet leverage → system collapse” is extracted, and fsQCA confirms the model’s excellent early warning performance in the context of low supervision and high accounting flexibility. This study constructs a three-dimensional evaluation framework, providing theoretical and practical references for the risk governance and value evaluation of technology firms.