Dynamic Transition of Accrual Earnings Management in the Baijiu Industry from a Triple-Cycle Perspective: Synergistic Impact of Corporate Governance and Financial Characteristics and Empirical Test

Earnings information is the core basis for decision-making by stakeholders in the capital market. Accrual-based earnings management, as an important way for enterprises to adjust earnings, has always been a focus of academic attention. The Baijiu industry, as a pillar consumer industry in China, experienced stages of “three public consumption” restrictions, consumption upgrades, the COVID-19 pandemic, and consumption recovery from 2012--2024. During different periods, the fluctuations in accrual items and the motives for earnings management of enterprises in this industry significantly differ. This paper takes listed companies in the Baijiu industry as the research object and combines the modified Jones model, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis to measure the degree of accrual-based earnings management in the industry from 2012--2024 in three stages, revealing the changing patterns and identifying key influencing factors. The study focuses on the long-term cycle of the industry and incorporates the impact of the pandemic, optimizing model parameters in stages and analyzing the differences in the effects of factors from two dimensions. The results show that accrual-based earnings management in the industry exhibits significant phased characteristics, with the debt-to-asset ratio being the core driving factor and the inhibitory effect of return on net assets being phased. The supervision of independent directors has not met expectations. On the basis of these findings, suggestions are made for enterprises, investors, and regulatory authorities.