JUSTIFICATION FOR DEVELOPMENT A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE MILITARY AND SCIENTIFIC (SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL) POTENTIAL OF A COUNTRY IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

The full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has demonstrated that modern military threats are determined not only by the quantity and quality of weapons and military equipment, but increasingly by a state’s military scientific and technological potential. The adversary’s ability to generate, adapt, and rapidly implement advanced technologies has become a decisive factor in contemporary warfare. This paper substantiates the relevance and necessity of developing a comprehensive methodology for assessing the military scientific (scientific and technological) potential of a country under conditions of armed confrontation. Particular attention is paid to the role of scientific research and development in shaping military capabilities, long-term strategic intentions, innovation dynamics, and the capacity for rapid force buildup, including in the areas of unmanned systems, electronic warfare, artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, space technologies, and cyber capabilities. The authors propose a methodological approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative indicators of scientific potential, including technological self-sufficiency, innovation capacity, and defense-oriented R&D dynamics. It is suggested to develop an analytical assessment model based on fuzzy logic and probabilistic scenario forecasting, an integrated scientific potential index, a multi-level scale for categorizing countries’ scientific potential, and a set of key indicators.