STATISTICAL AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF WEATHER VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS IN KEBBI STATE, NORTH WESTERN NIGERIA

Statistical analyses continue to play a foundational role in detecting trends and variability in climate datasets. This research examines past and future weather conditions in Kebbi State using meteorological data from 2009 to 2024. Statistical and forecasting methods were used to understand climate behavior and its impacts on agriculture, aviation, water resources, and climate planning. The results show strong link between rainfall and thunderstorms (r = 0.85), implying that thunderstorms largely control rainfall. Haze reveals strong negative relationship with rainfall (r = −0.72), reflecting the contrast between dry harmattan conditions and rainy season. The month of the year is closely related to rainfall (r = 0.68) and thunderstorms (r = 0.66), confirming clear wet and dry seasons. Fog shows weak links with other weather variables, indicating that it is mainly influenced by local conditions. Very high rainfall in August 2024 (602.9 mm) is unusual compared to past years and may point to growing climate change effects. August also records the highest thunderstorm activity, making it the peak month for convection. Trend analysis shows a significant increase in thunderstorms (p = 0.045), while rainfall shows slight upward trend (p = 0.087), suggesting a move toward wetter conditions. Changes in haze are not statistically significant and mainly reflect year-to-year variations. The August 2024 rainfall event stands out as a major climate anomaly, and increases in several weather variables suggest a wider climate shift rather than isolated events. Future projections (2025-2034) show rising trends in most weather conditions, except fog. Rainfall is expected to increase by about 5–7% each year after 2024, while fog conditions are likely to remain stable. These findings underscore the importance of proactive climate adaptation strategies, improved resource management, and policy planning to mitigate risks and enhance resilience in Kebbi State and similar regions of Nigeria.