CAMPAIGN PROMISES AND ELECTORAL OUTCOMES: A CASE STUDY OF SOKOTO NORTH SENATORIAL ZONE DURING THE 2023 SOKOTO STATE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

This study investigates the influence of campaign promises on voter expectations, political behaviour, and electoral outcomes in the 2023 Sokoto State gubernatorial election. Within Nigeria’s evolving democratic landscape, campaign promises remain a critical mechanism for political mobilisation and voter engagement. However, persistent gaps between electoral pledges and governance performance have increasingly raised concerns about political trust, accountability, and democratic consolidation. The study was prompted by widespread public dissatisfaction following the 2019 gubernatorial election and the subsequent electoral defeat of the incumbent party in 2023. Adopting a mixed-methods research design, the study combines survey data with key informant interviews conducted across selected local government areas in Sokoto State. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistical techniques, while qualitative data were subjected to thematic analysis to capture voters’ perceptions, experiences, and evaluations of governance performance. The findings reveal that campaign promises strongly influenced voter expectations and mobilisation in the 2023 Sokoto State gubernatorial election; that voters prioritised promises on security, electricity, infrastructure, agriculture, and employment. There was a significant gap between campaign promises and perceived governance performance, especially in security and infrastructure; that unmet promises led to widespread voter disappointment and erosion of public trust, and that loss of trust and internal party weaknesses contributed directly to the defeat of the incumbent party. The study concludes that campaign promises function not only as mobilisation tools but also as benchmarks for evaluating governance performance. It recommends closer alignment between campaign pledges and governance capacity, strengthened internal party democracy, and greater focus on issue-based governance as pathways to restoring public trust and enhancing democratic accountability.