Planificación estratégica y toma de decisiones financieras en organizaciones complejas

The growing structural complexity of organizations that manage long term contractual commitments and significant contingent liabilities generates important challenges for financial sustainability, particularly when strategic planning does not incorporate explicit metrics of concentration, exposure and extreme risk. Within this framework, the objective of the study was to analyze the relationship between strategic planning and financial decision making in complex organizations, examining how the architecture of commitments and contingent exposure influence budgetary stability. A quantitative explanatory approach with a non experimental design was adopted, supported by documentary analysis of institutional information corresponding to the 2021–2023 period and by the application of advanced statistical techniques including multiple linear regression, Pearson and Spearman correlations, LASSO penalized selection and Monte Carlo simulation. The results reveal a high level of financial concentration, where a single contract represents approximately 54 % of the total committed value, while five projects account for nearly 57.52 % of the aggregated risk exposure. The econometric model produced an adjusted R² of 0.68, confirming a statistically significant relationship between strategic planning and financial stability. The probabilistic simulation estimated an expected annual loss of 56.4 million USD, with a Value at Risk at the 95 % level of 183.5 million USD and extreme percentiles close to 260 million USD. These findings highlight financial structures highly sensitive to contractual shocks and emphasize the need to integrate strategic analysis, management control and probabilistic modeling into financial decision making.