Migration and population change patterns: a comparison between Italian and Spanish regions

This paper presents a comparative regional analysis on the role played by migration in recent population change in Italy and Spain. Annual data have been used on Italian regions and Spanish autonomous communities (NUTS-2 level) on all factors driving population growth for the period 2008-2021. The methodology includes the estimation of three indices: the Population Turnover Rate (PTR), Migration Share of Turnover (MST) and Birth Share of Turnover (BST). The analysis reveals marked differences between Spain and Italy: while international migration has driven most population turnover across all regions in Spain, especially after 2013, in Italy population turnover is mostly driven by both components and in particular by the BST due to the contribution of births from the foreign population in the northern regions and the lower incidence of migration in the southern regions.