Foreigners’ family composition in Lombardy: trends and future scenarios

The phenomenon of population ageing, while positive in terms of increased life expectancy, raises concerns across various aspects of political, social, and economic life in modern societies, including Italy. It calls for policy decisions that promote active and healthy ageing on one hand, and welfare measures that support couples’ fertility on the other. In demography, one factor that appears to positively influence fertility levels in host countries, at least in the short term, is immigration. This study analyses the migratory phenomenon in Lombardy through the lens of family composition among households with at least one foreign member, with the aim of assessing whether the immigrant population tends to form stable and cohesive family units. The underlying assumption is that immigration contributes to increasing fertility levels in the host country primarily through the formation of stable family structures. By integrating data from two sources, i.e., ISTAT data on resident and forecasted population and ORIM survey on foreign people living in Lombardy , the paper investigates historical patterns and proposes a possible future scenario through the use of the propensity method. This technique entails estimating the number of families by applying the proportions of individuals, usually broken down by age and gender, who live in various forms of living arrangements. The results suggest that the migration phenomenon in Lombardy has been evolving, with the family structures of foreigners increasingly aligning with those typical of the Italian population. Nonetheless, further analysis is required to draw more reliable conclusions about future developments.