Trends and Cross-Country Inequalities of Melanoma andNon-Melanoma Skin Cancer from 1990 to 2021 and Predictive Trendsfrom 2022 to 2044: A Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: Malignant skin melanoma (MSM) and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) have imposed a significant health and economic burden globally. This study aims to explore the disease burden and temporal trends of MSM and NMSC to inform evidence-based prevention and control strategies. Methods: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, covering deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence. Joinpoint regression, inequality analysis, decomposition analysis and age-period-cohort analysis identified trends and revealed the causes of burden changes from 1990 to 2021. Nordpred package in R projected the future trends of MSM and NMSC from 2022 to 2044. Results: From 1990 to 2021, global trends showed an increase in the number of deaths, DALYs, incidence, and prevalence for MSM, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC). The disease burden was highest in high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, predominantly concentrated in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States. Among MSM, SCC and BCC, SCC experienced the most substantial increases in age-standardized incidence (AAPC = 1.62 [95% CI: 1.51 to 1.73]) and prevalence (AAPC = 1.90 [95% CI: 1.78 to 2.02]). The primary drivers of changes in DALYs were identified as population aging and population growth. Persistent health inequalities continue to exist in the global burden of skin cancer. In the future, the deaths, DALYs, incidence, and prevalence cases of MSM and NMSC may continue to increase. Conclusion: The disease burden associated with MSM and NMSC remains substantial. Primary prevention for the elderly should be given priority. In the prevention of skin cancer, particular attention should be directed toward SCC. Global medical resources should be appropriately tilted towards skin cancer.