Integrated eco-economic zoning and carbon neutrality zoning into the PLUS model to simulate land use change in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Numerous studies have simulated land use dynamics in megacity regions for sustainable development and urban planning. However, many existing studies apply uniform transition rules across entire regions, ignoring the spatial heterogeneity among subregions. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), one of the three typical urban agglomerations in China, witnesses increased ecological risks and carbon emissions. Aiming to strengthen environmental zoning control, we conducted partition and land use change simulation research. Taking GBA as the study area, we proposed two comprehensive partitions and compared their effects on the simulation accuracy of Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS). One partition was eco-economic zoning, and another was carbon neutrality zoning. The results showed that both partitioned strategies improved accuracy by more than 25% compared to the whole-region simulation. Additionally, the accuracy of the PLUS model varied in sub-partitions. The implementation of PLUS simulations based on different partitions provides a deeper understanding of the spatial differentiation mechanisms of land conversion rules, thereby supporting differentiated zoning control.