Replication files for "Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs"

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new panel survey of German manufacturing firms, we observe both forecasts of sales growth and a quantitative measure of subjective uncertainty. We show that subjective uncertainty reflects change experienced by firms: it is high when growth is either unusually low or unusually high. Subjective uncertainty is more than conditional volatility: while more volatile firms are typically more uncertain, experienced change alone increases uncertainty, consistent with a model of learning. Uncertainty over our sample is mostly idiosyncratic but varies substantially over time and leads managers to plan lower employment and prices. Data access: The replication code for generating the results - provided you have all the required data sets - is going to be made publicly available for download on this website. A full replication package, which includes program code and data to replicate the results, is only accessible on the premises of the EBDC (on-site) upon written request.