Outsiders at the Ballot Box: Integration, Discrimination, and Muslims’ electoral behavior in Europe

Do exclusionary signals push ethnic minorities out of politics or mobilize them to politically act together? We study this question with a novel survey experiment among Muslim Turks in Germany that randomized videos of anti-Muslim hate-crime reports (social exclusion) and of an anti-Muslim far-right party’s electoral gains (political exclusion). We find that both treatments increase intended political participation, heighten in-group solidarity, and shift vote intentions toward left-wing parties. Crucially, these effects are concentrated among highly integrated Muslims, the very group that prevailing theories of integration predict to be least inclined toward ethnic voting. This pattern suggests that integration is not only a matter of individual resources or time in the host country; it also depends on how the majority treats minority communities. These findings highlight the role of public rejection signals in shaping political behavior, underscoring that even well-integrated citizens may mobilize collectively and support parties they perceive as more protective.