Cohesion Crime and Depression

Neighborhood variations in depression, an important aspect of the overall mental health burden, have been linked both to environmental context (e.g., area crime, neighborhood cohesion), and to area socio-demographic composition. Previous models seeking to ex-plain such spatial variations in mental health, such as those based on Bayesian disease mapping, follow a standard approach defined by: spatially stationary effects of area pre-dictors; predictor effects neglecting potential spatial spillover; and a spatially structured residual to account for unmodelled spatial dependencies. In a study of depression inci-dence in England neighborhoods, we consider the gains from an alternative strategy, al-lowing nonstationary environmental impacts; spillover effects of environmental factors, and a non-stationary spatial intensity. We focus particularly on impacts of so-cio-behavioral environments, namely neighborhood cohesion and crime. We find these to be major influences on neighborhood depression incidence, and also find major gains in model performance by explicitly considering non-stationarity and spillovers. Allowing context heterogeneity, varying spatial intensity and spillover are shown to enhance the impacts of socio-behavioral environments on depression incidence, and such findings have broader relevance to disease mapping regression. Public health policy framing may therefore need to be tailored to locally specific environmental impacts, and to inter-agency collaboration across arbitrary boundaries.