Spatio-temporal Catchment-scale Land-use Changes in the Shahpura Lake, India (1980-2021)

Rapid urbanisation is a major driver of land use and land cover (LULC) transformation in urban lake catchments, often threatening the long-term sustainability of lake ecosystems. This study aimed to quantify and analyse long-term spatio-temporal LULC dynamics within the Shahpura Lake catchment, Bhopal, India, over 40 years (1980–2021). The lake catchment was delineated using a DEM-based hydrological approach derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was analysed using supervised classification with a Maximum Likelihood algorithm to generate LULC maps for five reference years. Temporal changes were assessed using area statistics, linear trend analysis, and correlation analysis at the catchment scale. The results reveal a statistically significant expansion of built-up land, increasing by 220.7% (+0.062 km²/year; R² = 0.94; p < 0.01), accompanied by substantial declines in vegetation (−40.1%) and barren land (−39.6%). A strong inverse correlation between built-up and vegetation cover (r = −0.96; p < 0.05) confirms urban expansion as the dominant driver of land transformation. The surface area of Shahpura Lake remained relatively stable throughout the study period, showing no significant long-term trend. The study emphasises the importance of catchment-scale assessment for understanding urban lake dynamics. It also presents a remote sensing and GIS-based framework to support sustainable planning and management of urban lake ecosystems in rapidly urbanising regions.