People Underestimate the Acceptability of Canceling Plans

Social plans are foundational to interpersonal connection. Yet, whether it is dining out or attending events, people frequently cancel plans with others. While research has found that miscalibrated beliefs about others can inhibit socializing altogether, what happens psychologically when people consider canceling plans they have already made remains unclear. Do cancelers correctly infer the reactions of those they cancel on? Ten studies (N = 6,824) with American and French participants reveal that cancelers underestimate how acceptable others find being canceled on. This underestimation effect is robust across different plan types, regardless of whether the canceled-on person has alternative plans, how much effort the plan-maker exerted, or whether the canceler provided understandable justifications for canceling. The effect covaries with the cancelers’ belief that those canceled on are less forgiving and more impacted by cancellations than they actually are. Consequently, cancelers overestimate how much money to spend on gifts or the time they should spend to make it up to the person they canceled on. Finally, upfront compensatory action only partly attenuates the underestimation effect, suggesting the misperception is deep-rooted. These findings extend research on social misperceptions in interpersonal interactions, suggesting wrong beliefs about others’ reactions can exacerbate undersociality and drive unnecessary compensatory spending.