Kullan rooli suojana ja turvasatamana eurooppalaisille sijoittajille vuosina 2015–2025

This thesis examines the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven for European investors over the period of 2015—2025. Using daily gold and European equity return data, the study analyses gold’s hedging and safe haven properties with respect to major European stock indices, including the STOXX Europe 600 and national indices from Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. In addition, the thesis investigates whether gold functions as a short-term inflation hedge against Euro Area HICP inflation using monthly data. The empirical analysis employs DCC-GARCH models to capture time-varying dependence between gold and equity returns, alongside OLS regressions with stress dummy variables to assess gold’s behaviour during extreme equity market downturns. The relationship between gold and short-term inflation is examined using a univariate OLS regression framework. The results indicate that gold exhibits negative average correlations with all examined European equity indices, suggesting that gold functions as a hedge during normal market conditions within the sample period. Safe haven behaviour is observed only during the most severe equity market downturns and varies across countries, with evidence of protection for Italy, Spain, France, and the STOXX Europe 600, but not for Germany or the Netherlands. The inflation analysis finds no statistically significant relationship between gold returns and short-term Euro Area inflation, indicating that gold does not function as a short-term inflation hedge over the sample period. These results are broadly consistent with earlier literature documenting gold’s hedging role and its safe haven behaviour primarily during periods of extreme market stress. Where deviations from previous findings occur, they may be attributable to differences in sample period, regional focus, and methodological approach.