On the Need to Acquire Data for the Advancement of Shock Prediction

Today, most shock propagation predictions are empirically based, resulting from a single study done by Martin Marietta in 1970. That work examined a body of shock data available at the time to create empirically derived guidance on how shock magnitude propagates through joints and distance. Most space programs use this Martin Marietta data until final shock validation testing where actual propagation is observed and defined. At this point, exceedances can be costly. Modern shock prediction techniques exist, but these are not proven for official use because existing data is either too simple, the analysis is stymied by an insufficient finite element model, or the results of prior work are proprietary. This report demonstrates that even on a simple structure, 1) the historical empirical technique does not correctly predict the environment, and 2) basic linear and non-linear analysis is not sufficient for analysis of shock. This work sets the foundation for improving shock prediction by gathering and releasing open-source, high quality shock data that can be used by anyone to validate new techniques.