Evaluando el pensamiento probabilístico temprano en la infancia (4-5 años)

Stimulating probabilistic thinking from childhood is essential for the probabilistic literacy of citizens. However, there are few tools to measure its development at early ages. This study proposes an instrument to assess probabilistic thinking in children (4-5 years), considering random phenomena, probabilistic language and probability of an event. Using a qualitative approach, items were constructed, pilot studies were conducted and a process of expert judgment was carried out, generating evidence of validity regarding its relevance and functionality. The results contribute to the design of assessment tools that promote early mathematical learning by taking advantage of children's probabilistic intuitions.