The political integration of armed groups in a changing global security landscape: Implications for sustainable peace

This paper discusses the prospects for political integration of armed groups in the context of contemporary dynamics of armed conflict. While the conversion of insurgent movements into political actors is not new, shifting global conflict dynamics are challenging the established liberal peace framework. Drawing on insights from comparative case studies of both negotiated settlements and rebel victories, the paper argues that wartime organisational cohesion, governance capacity, ideology, and external engagement decisively shape prospects or post-war political integration of armed groups. It introduces a novel typology that highlights diverse pathways towards and constraints to demilitarisation and party formation. The analysis offers policy recommendations tailored to group type and context, situated within contemporary conflict environments marked by fragmentation and internationalisation. Ultimately, the paper argues that sustainable peace requires recognising rebel legacies, supporting incremental reforms, and fostering inclusive governance in the long term.