Uppslutning runt flaggan eller rationell utvärdering? : En studie av regeringstillit i Sverige under hälso- och säkerhetskris

Governmental trust, understood as citizens' evaluative relationship with the government, is a well-studied topic in the field of political science. Citizens base their trust on assessments of institutional performance, but how does this kind of trust get affected during crises? Sweden, a country with a high baseline trust, has recently experienced two very different kinds of crises: the COVID-19 pandemic and, later, a security crisis following the nearby war between Russia and Ukraine. This study examines how governmental trust has been affected during these crises through the lens of two competing perspectives: the more conventional institutional performance-evaluation approach and the “rally round the flag”, which predicts an increase in trust as a response to crisis. By using data from the European Social Survey, this study analyzes both changes in trust and factors driving these changes. The results indicate that the decline in trust during the pandemic is explained by changes in individuals' evaluations of the economy, health services, and the functioning of democracy, whereas only economic evaluations explain a decline in governmental trust during the security crisis. No apparent “rally round the flag” effect is found in either crisis.