Suhdannevaihteluiden vaikutus yritysostoihin ja -fuusioihin: Erityistarkastelussa Euroopan pankkisektori

This thesis examines how business cycles influence mergers and acquisitions (M&A), with a particular focus on the European banking sector. Drawing on theoretical and empirical literature, it identifies valuation dynamics, financing conditions, managerial behaviour, uncertainty and regulatory factors as the key mechanisms through which macroeconomic fluctuations shape M&A activity. The findings show that M&As are procyclical, meaning that the activity increases during economic expansions when liquidity, profitability and market valuations are high. And it declines sharply during downturns as financing constraints and uncertainty rise. The European banking sector illustrates these dynamics, as both cyclical profitability and structural regulation affect consolidation patterns. By combining academic research with sector-specific cases, the thesis highlights how macroeconomic conditions, institutional frameworks and financial stability considerations jointly determine the timing and nature of corporate restructuring.