Risk or Threat? : Georgia’s Danger-Assessment of Russia during Irakli Garibashvili’s Second Term

This paper investigates whether Georgia perceives Russia as a threat or as a risk. Jun Yan Chang has outlined three characteristics of threat versus risk, which in this case are employed in the context of Georgia. Through this analysis, insight is also gained on what dangers are perceived and what measures are taken to counteract them. This study uses qualitative content analysis to examine statements made by Georgian former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. The material has been selected from the news outlet Civil Georgia between 01/11 2020 and 29/01 2024. The results show that Georgia views Russia both as a threat and as a risk. Hybrid warfare and military occupation are seen as threats, whereas regional instability, military invasion, and energy dependence are perceived as risks. Danger to Georgian democracy and to Georgia’s EU- and NATO-applications, as well as economic blockades, show no clear pattern. This study aims to serve as a foundation for future research on Georgian foreign policy, especially in regard to concepts such as hedging, balancing, bandwagoning, and securitization.