Who Is (Not) Deterred? The Operational Consequences of Conflating Deterrence and Compellence in Ukraine

My presentation will address three interrelated questions: First, what explains the failure to deter Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022 – was this a deterrence failure or the absence of deterrence? Second, how does the post-2022 Western support structure differ from traditional extended deterrence relationships Third, why do policymakers and scholars persistently employ “deterrence” language to describe post-2022 dynamics when Ukraine faces a compellence task?