The significance of the war in Ukraine for Russian military thinking

One could argue that the Russo-Ukrainian War is merely one among many modern conflicts and that its impact on Russian strategy should therefore be limited—especially since Soviet military thinking traditionally warned against drawing far-reaching conclusions from the lessons of small, local wars. However, Russian military publications suggest the opposite for several reasons, despite the official designation of the conflict as a “special military operation.” Russian military thinkers perceive the war as a proxy conflict with the West and therefore as a regional war with global characteristics. Other prominent Russian military figures contend that the war demonstrates the emergence of a new revolution in military affairs. To forecast future Russian military strategy and force development, it is essential to understand the role and significance of the current war for Russian military thought. This research proposal seeks to address the following questions: • How does the Russian military elite see the war in Ukraine? • How does the war in Ukraine fit into the Russian typology of armed conflicts? • How does Russian military science conceptualize the war in Ukraine? • How will the war shape Russian threat perceptions and views of future warfare?