The limits of adhocracys : Domestic politics, foreign policy and state transformation in wartime Russia

This paper argues that since the full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has brought into play two paradoxical dynamics in the development of the Russian state. On the one hand, it has encouraged the radicalization of the regime, strengthening the power of the state over society through increased repression of the opposition. On the other hand, it has enabled the emergence and rise to power of non-state actors. These actors oppose the state’s bureaucratic elite and, as their claim to legitimacy derives from military success, they threaten the state’s monopoly on violence. The Prigozhin mutiny—or attempted coup—has represented the culmination of this dynamic. Consensus at the top of the elite seems to have been consolidated since, but dynamics of privatisation, outsourcing and decentralisation still represent significant threats to the state.