Exit Timing and Exit Conditions in Nordic Private Equity: A quantitative analysis of IPO and SBO exits between 2005-2025.

Private equity returns are ultimately realized through the exit of portfolio companies, making exit timing and exit routes central to the investment process. This thesis examines which factors are associated with exit timing and how macroeconomic conditions differ across exit routes for private equity investments in the Nordic region. Using a hand-collected dataset of 176 IPO and SBO exits between 2005 and 2025, the study applies an OLS regression and Welch’s t-tests. The results show that investments entered later in a fund’s life are exited significantly faster, while IPO exits occur during stronger equity market conditions and SBOs during relatively higher interest rate environments. These findings highlight the importance of fund life cycle constraints for exit timing and market conditions for exit route choice.