Firearm Violence in New York City, 2006-2024: A Time Series Analysis

This study analyzes 29,744 shooting incidents in New York City from 2006 to 2024 to identify temporal and spatial patterns. The temporal evolution reveals three distinct regimes: a sustained decline from 2006 to 2019, a dramatic 91.2% surge in 2020 coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, and post-2022 stabilization. Strong seasonal patterns emerge with summer months experiencing 2.3 times more incidents than winter months. Spatially, the top five precincts account for 22.7% of incidents despite representing only 7% of police precincts. Demographically, over 90% of both perpetrators and victims are male, with 81.7% of victims aged 18-44 and 71.9% identified as Black. Socioeconomic analysis reveals strong correlations between poverty rates and shooting incidents. Time series forecasting using SARIMA models captures temporal autocorrelation with reasonable out-of-sample accuracy, providing insights for future spatio-temporal modeling efforts to predict urban gun violence dynamics.