Kazakhstans Multi-vectoral Policy in a Changing World : Explaining a hedging states reaction to the shock of the Ukraine war

This paper investigates to what extent hedging theory can explain a states behaviour after a major security shock. Hedging theory has been used to explain the multi-vectoral foreign policy of multiple states that regularly have to deal with multiple great powers and how they navigate the international sphere. This theory argues that states will try to offset risks and create fallback positions when put in uncertain situations by diversifying their policies and ‘hedging their bets’. The empirical case chosen to investigate is Kazakhstan and how Kazakh foreign policy has changed since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This was done by analysing empirical observations such as trade statistics, arms trade, joint military exercises and votes in international institutions and then comparing to hypotheses based on theory hedging theory. The study concluded that while hedging theory could explain parts of Kazakhstan’s change and continuity in its foreign policy, however, it was not sufficient. It overlooked the importance of entrenched relations and how reliance also gives comfort and security in uncertain situations.