The tariff war that wasn’t: what economists missed about Trump’s trade gambit
Abstract
This commentary examines why economists' dire predictions about Trump's April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs failed to materialise. Three overlooked factors – Trump's pattern of backing down from threats ("TACO"), structural shifts in green technology and AI investment, and ASEAN's monetary policy flexibility – cushioned the expected blow and supported the economies, revealing methodological gaps in conventional macro analysis and forecasting.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Global trade and economics
COVID-19
Geopolitics
Technology
Migration
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Publication details
- Journal / source
- DR-NTU (Nanyang Technological University)
- Publication date
- 1 January 2026
- Language
- EN