Energy Survival in the EU Post-Russian Invasion : Has the Russian Invasion created differences in energy infrastructure among the EU members, based on their pre-war gas dependence from Russia?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to the EU constituting a new energy strategy called RePowerEU, focusing on phasing out all Russian energy imports alongside general sanctions towards Russia. Russia responded by cutting off much of its gas supply. This sudden shock affected EU member states differently, depending on their level of dependence on Russian gas. This study theorises that high dependent member states have a larger economic incentive to move away from Russian gas and gas in general, towards less risk associated energy systems, like domestic renewable energy sources (RES). Using a continuous difference-in-differences (DiD) model with two-way fixed effects, this study analyses whether a high intensity of Russian gas dependency causes larger gas reductions in a country’s energy mix and increases in RES electricity grid capacity. Across all outcomes, the results point in the expected direction: more exposed countries tend to reduce gas use more strongly and expand renewable capacity faster after 2022. However, the estimates are imprecise and not statistically significant. The results suggest limited short-run adjustment, likely reflecting path dependence and infrastructure constraints in national energy systems.