Segmented Expectations: How Origin and Destination Meritocratic Beliefs Interact to Shape Immigrant Students' Educational Expectations

This working paper examines how meritocratic beliefs in immigrants' origin and destination countries interact to shape their educational expectations. Using cross-classified multilevel models with data from PISA 2022, World Values Survey, and other international datasets, the study analyzes over 7,000 immigrant students from 22 destination and 35 origin countries. Key findings: The study demonstrates a significant positive crossover interaction between origin and destination meritocratic beliefs. For immigrant students from origins with strong meritocratic beliefs, their educational expectations are positively associated with destination meritocratic beliefs. Conversely, for those from origins with weaker meritocratic belief, their educational expectations are negatively associated with the meritocratic beliefs at destinations. Status: Under review at International Migration Review (submitted December 2025) This is the author's original manuscript (preprint). This version has not been peer-reviewed and may differ from the final published version. If accepted for publication, this page will be updated with the full citation and DOI. Please do not cite this version without permission. For published version (when available), please contact the author. Author: Siyun Gan Affiliation: Department of Educational Policy Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison Email: sgan8@wisc.edu