Changing Goals and Strategies of Major Powers in the Arctic: Military, Economic, and Institutional Perspectives

This thesis examines the changing goals and strategies of major powers in the Arctic region, with a focus on the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China, and the United States of America. The study analyzes how and why these states have adjusted their behavior over the past decade in response to evolving strategic, economic, and institutional conditions. The research is structured around three analytical dimensions: military and security considerations, economic ambitions, and institutional engagement. Drawing on neorealism, post-classical realism, and neoliberal institutionalism, the thesis formulates and tests three hypotheses to explain observed changes in Arctic strategies. Employing a comparative analysis methodology, the analysis is based on national strategies, policy documents, institutional records, and academic literature. The findings show that the Arctic has become an increasingly important arena of great-power competition, while cooperation persists in a more selective and constrained form. Security concerns, long-term economic interests, and the instrumental use of institutions jointly shape state behavior. The thesis concludes that Arctic geopolitics is best understood as a hybrid environment characterized by the coexistence of rivalry and cooperation, rather than by...