How is the Brazilian students' learning? An analysis based on Saeb, Pirls and Pisa

This study investigates the learning situation of Brazilian students after the COVID-19 pandemic by analyzing the country’s results in the 2021 and 2023 editions of the Sistema de Avaliação da Educação Básica (Saeb), the 2021 Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), the 2023 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), and the 2022 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The study compares the results of these assessments to understand Brazil’s educational situation in a global context, exploring the methodological differences between them and their implications for interpreting the results. In particular, it discusses learning trends in recent years, regional and socioeconomic inequalities, and the impact of the pandemic. The study also examines the specificities of Saeb as an educational monitoring tool, highlighting limitations that undermine its ability to accurately reflect learning quality in the country. Among these limitations, concerns are raised about the appropriateness of test items and texts, as well as the effects of exam-focused training, which intensified after the creation of the Índice de Desenvolvimento da Educação Básica (Ideb), leading to distortions in the results over time. The findings indicate that Brazilian education faces persistent structural challenges. First, the data show that learning outcomes in Brazil are critical, even in the early years of elementary school. While Saeb suggested progress at this stage, the results from PIRLS 2021 and TIMSS 2023 reveal that a significant proportion of students still fail to reach basic proficiency levels, suggesting that the improvements indicated by the national exam may not translate into meaningful learning gains. Second, mathematics stands out as Brazil’s most concerning subject in international comparisons. The TIMSS 2023 and PISA 2022 results show that the learning gap in mathematics is much larger than in reading and science, with a substantial percentage of students unable to solve even the most basic exam items. Another key aspect of the analysis is Brazil’s difficulty in ensuring academic success for students from low socioeconomic backgrounds. The results highlight the country's stark educational inequality, evident both in analyses segmented by socioeconomic level and by region. The case of Ceará illustrates this issue: despite being frequently cited as a model for educational progress in the early years, its average performance in TIMSS 2023 was not among the best in Brazil, indicating that the improvements observed in Saeb may not necessarily translate into substantial learning gains in more demanding assessments. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the pandemic had a greater impact on Saeb than on PISA, possibly due to students being less prepared for the 2021 edition of the national exam. However, the recovery of Saeb scores in 2023 and the relative stability of PISA results suggest that even before the pandemic, in-person schooling was not guaranteeing significant learning, raising concerns about the overall effectiveness of Brazil’s education system. Finally, the comparison between Saeb and international assessments underscores the urgent need to improve the national exam. Saeb indicated progress in the early years that was not confirmed by international tests, and TIMSS 2023 calls into question the success of some municipalities that performed well in the Brazilian assessment. This suggests that Saeb may be capturing improvements in basic skills without necessarily reflecting a real transformation in learning quality. The study contributes to the understanding of the weaknesses of Brazil’s evaluation system and reinforces the urgency of structural reforms that promote both equity and quality in education, ensuring effective learning for all students.