Akdeniz Bölgesi, Türkiye’de Sıcak Hava Dalgası Sağlık Risklerinin Haritalandırılması

Heatwaves (HWs) are major climate-related health threats, yet their health impacts are often underestimated, particularly under climate change (CC). This thesis develops a quantitative framework to assess and map heatwave health risk (HWHR). The coastal Mediterranean region of Türkiye is used as the case study site. Daily maximum temperature (T_max) observations from meteorological stations (MSs) are used to represent the historical period while EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections are used to represent the future period. HW hazard is represented as HW classes defined by T_max and duration, d pairs, (T_max,d). The study area is divided into 1 km × 1 km study units (SU) and annual average HWHRs are calculated for each SU. HW classes are defined using literature-based (T_max,d) thresholds and the negative health effects of the HW classes are derived from an expert survey. The joint probabilities of HW classes at each SU are calculated. Vulnerability is represented using age-based indicators (population aged 0–4 and 65+). For each SU, annual average HWHR is calculated. Annual average HWHR maps are produced for three historical sub-periods (i.e., H1: 1975–1984, H2: 1985–1994, and H3: 1995–2005) and three future periods (i.e., F1: 2006–2034, F2: 2035–2064, and F3: 2065–2100) to observe the effects of CC. At the provincial scale, mean annual average HWHR increases substantially in the future periods relative to H3. From H3 to F3, the percent relative change in the mean annual average HWHR ranges from 57% in Adana to 216% in Hatay. The strongest relative increase in HWHR is observed in Hatay with 216%, followed by Antalya with 137% and Muğla with 116%, indicating rapidly intensifying coastal hotspots. Mersin also shows a notable increase of 94%, while Adana exhibits the smallest relative growth of 57% despite remaining among the provinces with high absolute HWHR levels in the far-future period.