Macroeconomic Uncertainty, the ECB Monetary Policy Stance and their Communication

Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) 2026 Book Open access

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Authors: Laura Bottazzi, Carlo A. Favero, Rubén Fernàndez-Fuertes, Francesco Giavazzi, Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, Tommaso Monacelli, Antonella Trigari
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Abstract

This paper assesses the ECB’s monetary policy stance and communication amid declining inflation, persistent uncertainty, and renewed external risks. It documents how trade-policy shocks and global spillovers affect inflation surprises, highlights substantial cross-country inflation heterogeneity within the euro area, and shows that common shocks generate uneven national responses. Using a novel multi-agent LLM framework, it evaluates ECB communication, revealing strengths during active policy adjustments but gaps in addressing inflation dispersion and uncertainty communication.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Monetary Policy and Economic Impact European Monetary and Fiscal Policies Market Dynamics and Volatility

Publication details

Journal / source
Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna)
Publication date
1 January 2026
Language
EN
Document type
Book