Modeling Shrimp Larval Drift in Disko Bay:Linking Ocean Dynamics and Recruitment in a Changing Arctic

Fishing remains a cornerstone of Greenlandic society both culturally and economically, with the fishing industry contributing around 25% to the national GDP. As Arctic waters warm, understanding the dispersal and recruitment of key species like northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) becomes increasingly important for sustainable fisheries management. In this study, we present a new larval drift model for Disko Bay, West Greenland, which integrates high-resolution outputs from the FlexSem hydrodynamic model with biological parameters to simulate shrimp larval trajectories. The model accounts for temperature-dependent hatching, as well as the influence of coastal currents and mesoscale eddies, providing a detailed picture of larval transport dynamics. Our results highlight how interannual variability in oceanographic conditions affects temperature, stratification, and current patterns. These changes, in turn, influence larval retention, connectivity, and recruitment success. We find that both large-scale circulation and local topographic features shape larval dispersal, with implications for population dynamics. This work contributes to a more mechanistic understanding of shrimp recruitment variability and offers a first step towards improved understanding of the impact of climate change on Arctic coastal systems.