Progressive pathways for a resilient (re)construction of Ukraine: Towards a new social contract

This policy study places labour at the centre of reconstruction planning for Ukraine as the driving force of the economy and of all present and future economic reconstruction work there. It acknowledges the three stages of the reconstruction process, as outlined in the 2022 Lugano framework – repair of damage, short-term recovery, and long-term recovery – and their advancement in the subsequent conferences in London in 2023 and Berlin in 2024. It further acknowledges the tragic reality that the liquidation-of-damage phase (initially set at two years) has now lasted four years and will continue for an unknown period. In such circumstances, it is crucial to focus on the immediate economic problems. This can and should be done in line with the long-term reconstruction planning. Planning the liquidation of damage and the everyday survival of the economy should be done in a manner that lays the foundation for long-term reconstruction without creating significant systemic vulnerabilities and path dependencies that may be acceptable in a conflict management scenario but are suboptimal in the post-conflict period. Such considerations are relevant both in private economic affairs and in the management of state-owned enterprises and in the public services domain.