GLOBAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL BURDEN OF CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE DUE TO TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS, 1990-2021, WITH FORECASTS TO 2035: A FORECASTING STUDY FOR THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE STUDY 2021.

IMPORTANCE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) attributable to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) represents a growing global health concern. However, comprehensive long-term epidemiological trends and projections, stratified by sociodemographic and geographic variables, remain inadequately delineated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of CKD due to T2DM from 1990 to 2021, and to forecast its trends through 2035 using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based observational study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), which includes 204 countries and territories across five sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles and 21 GBD regions. The study covers the period 1990-2021 with projections to 2035. EXPOSURE: Diagnosis of T2DM mellitus as an underlying cause for CKD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident and prevalent cases, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to T2DM-related CKD. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASDR), and DALY (ASR) rates were computed, alongside estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global number of incident CKD cases due to T2DM increased by 167.2%, while the ASIR rose by 21.0% (EAPC: 0.61). Prevalent cases nearly doubled (+85.1%), although ASPR declined slightly (-5.1%, EAPC: -0.17). Deaths surged by 222.6%, and ASDR increased by 37.8% (EAPC: 1.17). DALYs rose by 173.6%, with a 24.0% increase in ASR (EAPC: 0.81). Males and older adults consistently exhibited higher burden across all indicators. Low- and middle-SDI nations experienced the most pronounced burden growth, yet high-SDI regions also registered substantial increases in mortality and DALYs. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Projections to 2035 suggest a continued escalation, with incident cases exceeding 2.6 million and deaths surpassing 700,000 annually by mid-century. These findings highlight the importance of targeted prevention, early detection, and improved management strategies, particularly in high-growth regions and vulnerable populations.