Assessment of Port Ocean Prediction System developed under Canada's Oceans Protection Plan : St. Lawrence Estuary

Canada's Oceans Protection Plan (OPP) was launched in 2016 to support initiatives aimed at protecting our marine environment from anthropogenic pressures. To this end, the Improving Drift Prediction and Nearshore Modelling sub-initiative of OPP developed six high-resolution port-scale hydrodynamic models, to improve safe navigation, and provide operational emergency response to events such as marine oil spills. The models were downscaled from the Coastal Ice-Ocean Prediction Systems East and West (CIOPS-E, CIOPS-W). Atmospheric forcing was provided by the High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Model performance is assessed against available observational data and contrasted with the parent model using a multi-year hindcast. Evaluations of 48-hour forecasts are performed during a two-month period. This document reports on the performance assessment for St. Lawrence Estuary’s ocean prediction system. Details about the system development and configuration are presented. Comparison of model results with data on water levels, currents, water properties and drift are also presented, and this comparison includes CIOPS-E where possible. Results show that performances of the high-resolution models for this region are improved for all observations used when compared to CIOPS-E in the Middle Estuary.