Female Leadership and Municipal Fiscal Performance in Colombia: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design (2007–2019)

This study examines whether the gender of the elected mayor affects the fiscal performance of Colombian municipalities. To do so, it constructs a municipal panel covering all 1,121 municipalities in the country and the government periods associated with the 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 local elections. Leveraging highly competitive mixed-gender elections, where female candidates narrowly win or lose against male candidates, the analysis implements a regression discontinuity design that identifies the local causal effect of female leadership on seven fiscal management indicators, including the fiscal performance index, revenue structure, and expenditure composition.