Reflexive Deterrence: Reflexive Control in Nuclear Deterrence in Ukraine : A qualitative study of Russian nuclear signalling between 2022-2025

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine and during, nuclear weapons have been at the forefront of discussions regarding the war. Scholars have given the subject much attention but have not given it through the lens of information warfare. This study seeks to investigate Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy during its invasion of Ukraine from 2022-2025, looking at how Russia uses reflexive control in its signalling against its adversaries through statements, force projection, and the treaties and doctrines that govern nuclear use. It utilizes an interpretivist approach and political discourse analysis framework. The results find support that Russia engages using a reflexive control toolkit in its nuclear deterrence strategies in what the study coins as ‘reflexive deterrence,’ which differs from traditional scholarly understandings of nuclear deterrence, and adds onto existing understandings of Russian deterrence strategy. It also argues that Russia uses this signalling to maintain escalation control to deter adversaries.