Assessment of Port Ocean Prediction System developed under Canada's Oceans Protection Plan : Saint John, New Brunswick

Canada's Ocean Protection Plan (OPP) was launched in 2016 to support initiatives aimed at protecting our marine environment from anthropogenic pressures (DFO, 2016). To this end, the oceanography sub-initiative of OPP developed six high-resolution operational port-scale hydrodynamic models, to improve safe navigation, and provide operational emergency response to events such as marine oil spills. The models were downscaled from the Coastal Ice-Ocean Prediction Systems East and West (CIOPS-E, CIOPS-W). Atmospheric forcing was provided by the High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). Model evaluation is an integral part of this development and here the port models are evaluated against available observational data and the parent model using a multiyear hindcast. Evaluations of 48-hour forecasts are performed during a two month period. Additionally, model performance during major storms is examined. The details of the configuration and evaluation of the port ocean prediction system for Saint John, New Brunswick (POPS-SJ) are presented. The two-level nested system is found to provide improved predictions for water level and sea-surface temperature relative to the existing CIOPS-E system. The hindcast of the POPS-SJ system is also more skillful than CIOPS-E at reproducing observations, including water level, water properties, and especially water velocities.