Potential Agricultural Price Impacts of Chinese Trade Retaliation

We explore how the Chinese response to the United States tariff threats might affect U.S. agricultural markets. China’s retaliation has involved soybeans, its largest agricultural import from the U.S. In a departure from recent history, China recorded near-zero imports of U.S. soybeans from May through November 2025. Although imports resumed following a bilateral agreement reached later in the year, the volume purchased during 2025 was only about a quarter of the level of recent years.