Net-zero pathways and the future of GB electricity transmission networks

The UK government set a legally binding net-zero greenhouse gas emission target aiming for a fully decarbonized energy system by 2050. Achieving this will require major reforms in the electricity market. However, a clear, officially recognized pathway to decarbonization has yet to be provided. Several research organizations including the Energy Systems Catapult, the National Energy System Operatthe Centere Center for Alternative Tech and the Climate Change Committee have proposed decarbonization pathways. Although these pathways differ in their assumptions and approaches, they all anticipate a significant increase in both electricity demand and renewable generation. In these scenarios, electricity generation is projected to increase by 51% to 160% by 2050, creating both opportunities and challenges for the power transmission network of GB. In this study, we employ a modeling framework to examine the potential impacts of these decarbonization policies on the Great Britain electricity transmission system up to 2050. We identify likely congestion points and critical transmission lines under the predicted growth in load and generation across all seven pathways, providing information to support planning for a resilient and low-carbon electricity network.