Economic Conditions Constitute Zero-Sum Beliefs as a Predictive and Classifiable Cognitive Structure

The social competition has become increasingly fierce, and individuals’ perception of success is guided by cooperation and shared benefits. Some people define success as a scarce and exclusive resource, which is referred to as the “zero-sum construal of success”. This viewpoint will weaken individuals’ tendency to actively help others and their willingness to share knowledge. This study aims to evaluate whether the zero-sum construal of success has a predictable structural basis shaped by macroeconomic and social-status factors. We based our research on replicating the research of Sirola and Pitesa (2017), using Bayesian regression and XGBoost models introduced to empirically assess the predictability of the zero-sum construal of success. We find little evidence supporting the replicability of the original findings. The research results indicate that zero-sum belief is not a randomly formed attitude tendency but a psychological cognitive structure constructed by socioeconomic factors. It also shows that economic pressure affects individuals at the emotional level, and it shapes competitive cognitive paradigms through learnable social mechanisms. The findings of this study provide a new research perspective for understanding the relationship between economic cycle fluctuations and social psychological changes.